Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 20.900727 24.458745 28.792337 34.579085 42.300460 52.561557 67.825278
2025-01-05 16.072941 19.931523 25.094001 32.825722 44.763103 63.862622 100.491407
2025-01-12 13.181221 16.873790 22.082942 30.438148 44.605521 70.449109 131.384350
2025-01-19 11.329824 14.830886 19.960201 28.615844 44.403159 76.538229 168.608702
2025-01-26 11.337646 15.398358 21.739152 33.439136 57.900851 120.342552 413.150972
2025-02-02 10.809967 15.050404 21.968491 35.582644 67.218844 165.705504 1004.370640
2025-02-09 9.759822 13.734975 20.346071 33.739445 66.454794 179.282294 1636.750540
2025-02-16 9.333640 13.373246 20.313370 35.098529 74.615351 241.389746 8449.533795
2025-02-23 8.785498 12.743171 19.696795 35.048287 78.913377 297.685349 697210.633665
2025-03-02 8.294394 12.158691 19.082023 34.857911 82.797947 366.171365 NaN
2025-03-09 7.937762 11.770980 18.787794 35.355335 89.456344 489.044237 NaN
2025-03-16 7.417843 11.051874 17.762981 33.845146 88.008692 532.522705 NaN
2025-03-23 7.047769 10.598101 17.269938 33.739583 92.852360 709.633471 NaN
2025-03-30 6.568096 9.912921 16.242187 32.053550 90.312701 768.715760 NaN
2025-04-06 6.078707 9.179157 15.051884 29.748220 84.107919 727.778339 NaN
2025-04-13 5.678699 8.586500 14.108201 27.986550 79.822706 720.575079 NaN
2025-04-20 5.844683 9.043097 15.390549 32.645474 110.192244 3063.156897 NaN
2025-04-27 5.777613 9.055091 15.724444 34.712037 130.859751 16448.309589 NaN
2025-05-04 5.458248 8.560974 14.883999 32.935143 125.016722 18245.026309 NaN
2025-05-11 5.360692 8.490624 14.993029 34.245502 142.876445 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.186827 8.259009 14.708937 34.197078 150.814464 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.017681 8.026667 14.402215 34.013579 157.837201 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 4.896065 7.881783 14.288435 34.492997 172.364900 NaN NaN